Decision Making in a Nuclear Middle East: Lessons from the Cold War

Decision Making in a Nuclear Middle East—Lessons from the Cold War is a book for all who are concerned about the future of the Middle East, the survival of Israel and the potential for a tragic nuclear conflict in the region. This book opens a window into the early years of the nuclear age, shedding light on decisions that more than once brought the world close, sometimes very close, to a global nuclear war. It describes technical glitches and human failures that triggered false alarms, as well as the courageous decisions that likely prevented an accidental Armageddon.

Decision Making in a Nuclear Middle East takes an operational, decision-making approach to explore how decisions about the use of nuclear weapons were made and how the nuclear powers had to overcome operational challenges. You will learn from previously secret discussions held by the US National Security Council, Soviet leaders and other governments’ officials how multiple crises in Berlin, the Taiwan Straits, and the Caribbean put millions of lives at risk. If you believe that the Cold War ended as it was predestined, then this book will give you pause. And if you think that a future nuclear standoff between Iran and Israel will also lead to peace, then you will likely have to reconsider.


May be purchased through my Amazon bookstore.

Going Nuclear is available for the Nook, Audible and Apple’s iBooks.

Decision Making in a Nuclear Middle East—Lessons from the Cold War

Dissecting the Soviet-US Cold War nuclear deterrence history with great clarity, Ozzie Paez shows how fickle and unreliable mutual deterrence can be in the Middle East context. This is one of the most, if not THE most insightful, concise, clear-eyed analysis I’ve read about the Middle East fragile balance of power. I started reading this short book as a believer in mutual deterrence. I ended up absolutely convinced Paez is right, and Washington (surprise!) is blind as bat…”

Ben Gilad
Founder, Academy of Competitive Intelligence

Free audiobook Sample



Ozzie has written a very comprehensive analysis of the history of world nuclear powers’ decision making and its subsequent application/non-application to the current Middle East situation. His conclusions are unsettling to say the least; any diplomat (foreign or domestic) with regional responsibilities should take pause to consider the most likely outcomes he predicts if decision makers do not correctly evaluate events in light of the new paradigm existing in today’s Middle East.

Richard J. Clopper, LCDR
USNR (Retired)


May be purchased through my Amazon bookstore
Going Nuclear is available for the Nook, Audible and Apple’s iBooks.


Paez takes the reader through the buildup and maneuverings of the Cold War, replete as it was with egos, missteps, glitches, and near catastrophes, arguing that such “balanced” relationships are actually quite unstable, and the “only certain way to prevent a nuclear war is to prevent adversaries from possessing nuclear weapons in the first place.” The book is brief, yet the author manages to communicate his point with colorful prose and an arsenal of facts…

A well-constructed argument against a nuclear Iran.

KIRKUS Book Review

Will a nuclear conflict be more or less likely if Iran becomes a nuclear power? Will a new balance of power and nuclear deterrence prevent more bloodshed in the region? Would further proliferation by other players in the region make war more or less likely? What lessons can we learn from the Cold War? These are the issues analyzed and discussed in this timely book.

Special Offer

Register so we can inform you when the book becomes available.