Great leaders and their organizations have one clear objective in mind – to succeed by outperforming their peers and competitors. Many will set new standards of performance that redefine customer expectations in ways their competitors will find difficult, if not impossible to match. That requires transforming information into timely, aware decisions, something easier said than done. It explains why every year we spend one and a half trillion dollars ($1,500,000,000) on communications and information systems in the hope of getting a leg up on the competition. Unfortunately, our investments in information technologies frequently don’t deliver the outstanding performance and competitive advantage we hoped for. The sheer volume of information and rapidly changing environments can still leave decision makers embattled, confused and confounded. That’s where I come in. I help leaders and organizations become experts at turning information into timely, aware decisions to outperform peers and competitors alike.

My books illustrate and demonstrate decision-making in varying contexts and situations. They teach by drilling into different subjects, lessons learned and assumptions that did and did not turn out as expected. They are indispensable for decision-makers who will need to apply decision-making principles and avoid common traps in future, unexpected and unknown situations. Developing these skills is crucial to making decisions under uncertainty in dynamic environments.

My services are designed to help select leaders transform themselves and their organizations into expert, highly aware decision makers. Our shared goals are to constantly improve how the right information is leveraged by the right people and organizations to outperform peers, competitors and adversaries. Nationally and internationally it means structuring decisions and agreements to reduce risks, improve security and meet human needs.

Let’s discuss your unique situation and my distinct solutions. I am always eager to find leaders and organizations looking for outstanding performance and advantage in timely, aware, informed decision making.

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These books analyze decision making under high uncertainty with the fate of millions in the balance. Both books take a decision making, operational approach that can help leaders in the private and public sectors cope with changing conditions, emerging risks and high uncertainty. Purchase through my Amazon bookstore.  Going Nuclear is available for the Nook, Audible and iBooksDecision Making in a Nuclear Middle East also available for the Nook, Audible and iBooks.

Decision Making in a Nuclear Middle East: Lessons from the Cold War

This is a new and timely book for 2016, an election year in the United States, that takes a human decision making, operational approach to analyzing the implications of an Iranian-Israeli nuclear standoff.  It opens a window into the early years of the Cold War, when the United States faced an emerging nuclear adversary in the Soviet Union. The drama of those years come alive in the words of Presidents Truman, Eisenhower and Kennedy, and of Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev. Their thinking and actions were captured in documents, meeting notes and transcripts that only became available after the Cold War. There are recollections from senior officers on both sides, who were involved in the Cuban missile crisis, and nearly started a global nuclear war. Their experiences and decisions shed light on the risks and uncertainties that a nuclear Iran will add to an already unstable Middle East.

Decision Making in a Nuclear Middle East challenges assumptions that the Cold War was a generally safe and stable period whose outcome will likely repeat in the Middle East. The analysis takes a hard look at the assumed stability of the Cold War, the judgment of Soviet and American leaders, technology glitches, incidents and events that brought the superpowers closer to a nuclear exchange than they ever planned or expected. It considers the judgments, methods, and processes used by senior military commanders when false alarms raised fears that an adversary’s sneaky first strike was on its way.

The relative strengths and weaknesses of Iran and Israel are carefully considered to test the Israeli government’s position that a nuclear Iran represents an existential threat to the Jewish State. And it examines the Iranian government’s view of existential threats to Iran by external influences they judge contrary to Islamic principles.

Decision Making in a Nuclear Middle East is a short book that is packed with information and insights to help you understand the most dangerous emerging crisis of our times. It will arm you with the knowledge and information you need to evaluate policies and seek solutions to prevent another, even more dangerous, nuclear standoff. At stake are millions of lives, places central to three of the world’s greatest religions and the health of the world economy.

Order the book from my author’s bookstore on Amazon.

Learn more…

Decision Making in a Nuclear Middle East—Lessons from the Cold War


Going Nuclear
Informed Decision Makers

Praise for Decision Making in a Nuclear Middle East


“Ozzie’s analysis of the nuclear Middle East is based on a novel application of ‘benchmarking’- a technique used in business to compare best practices. Dissecting the Soviet-US Cold War nuclear deterrence history with great clarity, Ozzie Paez shows how fickle and unreliable mutual deterrence can be in the Middle East context. This is one of the most, if not THE most insightful, concise, clear-eyed analysis I’ve read about the Middle East fragile balance of power. I started reading this short book as a believer in mutual deterrence. I ended up absolutely convinced Paez is right, and Washington (surprise!) is blind as bat…”


See Ben Gilad’s full review of Decision Making in a Nuclear Middle East on Amazon


“A well-constructed argument against a nuclear Iran.”


See the full review on Kirkus book reviews.


Praise for Going Nuclear


Author Ozzie Paez has done his homework and it shows. The book is based on numerous papers, articles, and interviews, that were integrated into a coherent read. Mr. Paez’s passion saves us from the dry and tough experience that usually accompanies such fact-packed books. However, his personal experience as US Air Force veteran and researcher into safety and security don’t surface as much as the interested reader may want it to.


The essence of the book is twofold. Not only does it shed light on current crises and political instability, but it also shows the detrimental effects of hindsight bias on decision-making. The book is more than just a history lesson, it harbors many useful insights for any decision-maker. A few of the best are: “Hindsight doesn’t produce foresight” and its emergence is “a process, not an event’…


See B.L. van Veen’s full review of Going Nuclear on Amazon

About Ozzie Paez

I mentor and advise my clients on translating information into timely, highly aware decisions that serve as powerful operational-competitive differentiators.

Decision-making is a ubiquitous activity among human beings. If we are alive and conscious then we are making decisions, many of which will have life-long consequences. Decision-making is the point of the spear for how people and organizations operate, perform, compete, deal with threats and exploit opportunities. My services are designed to sharpen that point and, most importantly, help my clients keep it sharp long after the conclusion of my services.

“The most dangerous decision-making fallacy is that informed decision-makers will naturally make more objective, effective decisions. Consistently good, effective, informed decision-making takes hard work. Trust me – it’s worth it. Decision-making is the essential common ingredient in every step, initiative and strategy people, organizations and national governments undertake. ”
— Ozzie Paez

Learn More About Ozzie

Ozzie Paez

How you and your organization use information will determine how smart your organization will become and how uniquely valuable your workforce will be. 

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